In the aftermath of the 2006 pro-democracy riots that devastated Tonga’s capital, Nukuʻalofa, the Tongan government turned to the international community for help rebuilding its central business district. While countries such as Australia and New Zealand provided assistance, it was China that emerged as the principal financier. Through concessional loans from the Export-Import Bank of China, Tonga secured funds to restore key infrastructure. However, this financial support has led to growing concerns about the nation’s debt sustainability, as much of Tonga’s external debt remains owed to China.
Beijing’s Narrative: The Sole Helping Hand
In a recent statement, the Chinese Embassy in Tonga asserted that China was “the only country to lend a helping hand” during Tonga’s financial hardships. While the statement focused on the loans, it was also diplomatically subtle in expressing China’s ongoing effort to portray itself as a more reliable partner than traditional powers like the United States, particularly at a time when American global engagement appears to be waning under the Trump administration’s renewed “America First” doctrine.
Trump’s 2025 Return and the Paralysis of U.S. Foreign Aid
Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, U.S. foreign policy has once again pivoted toward unilateralism. One of the most significant developments was his executive order in January 2025 that temporarily paused all foreign aid from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the State Department for a 90-day review. Nearly all USAID employees were placed on administrative leave during the pause, leaving countless aid initiatives in limbo. Though the long-term outcome of the review remains unclear, development experts warn that the vacuum could have serious implications, especially in regions like the Pacific.
Warning Bells: America’s Absence and China’s Advance
Former USAID officials and international policy analysts have cautioned that the freeze on aid could erode decades of U.S. influence in areas dependent on development assistance. In places like Tonga, where American aid had historically supported disaster recovery, healthcare, and climate resilience, this absence has opened the door for China to strengthen its diplomatic and economic presence. With the U.S. stepping back, China has ramped up investments and outreach across the Pacific, positioning itself as a proactive and dependable development partner.
Aid After Disaster: The U.S.–China Soft Power Contest in Tonga
The 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption and tsunami offered a clear view of competing aid strategies. The U.S, through USAID, provided initial emergency relief funding of $100,000, followed by an additional $2.5 million for shelter, water, sanitation, and hygiene support. The U.S. Department of Defense also deployed the USS Sampson to deliver aid under strict COVID-19 protocols, highlighting America’s multi-pronged humanitarian approach.
Meanwhile, China responded rapidly as well. The Chinese government and the Red Cross Society of China provided humanitarian cash assistance and dispatched several rounds of supplies, including drinking water, food, and disaster relief materials. Leveraging its military logistics, China used naval vessels and aircraft to deliver over 1,400 tons of relief, including mobile housing units, generators, and agricultural equipment. Its aid arrived just days after the disaster, reinforcing its narrative of dependable partnership.
Shifting Allegiances: From Washington to Beijing?
The Pacific Islands, long considered part of America’s diplomatic backyard, have increasingly lean toward China for development and infrastructure support. With U.S. aid suspended and key partnerships neglected, it would not be surprising if Pacific nations would be recalibrating foreign relations. Chinese cultural diplomacy, combined with financial and logistical aid, is helping Beijing make inroads in areas once dominated by U.S. influence.
Trump’s Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Fallout
Beyond the Pacific, Trump’s 2025 foreign policy decisions have further strained U.S. alliances. His administration’s proposal for Ukraine to accept Russia’s annexation of Crimea and potentially abandon NATO ambitions has deeply unsettled European allies. NATO members fear this signals an erosion of U.S. commitments to collective defense and international law.
Moreover, Trump’s expansive tariff regime has targeted not only rivals like China but also close allies such as Canada, France, and Germany. His revived interest in purchasing Greenland—an idea floated during his first term—has resurfaced, albeit met with international ridicule. But amongst the most disturbing remarks that any U.S President could ever make was Donald Trump’s dictatorial aspirations to have Canada as the 51st State. These positions have triggered calls in Europe for greater strategic autonomy and defense integration outside the U.S-led order.
America’s Diminishing Soft Power and the Rise of Alternatives
The cumulative effect of these policies has been a notable erosion of U.S. soft power—the ability to lead through influence, values, and trust rather than coercion. Many nations now view Washington as erratic and transactional, no longer the bedrock of global stability it once was. This has emboldened other powers, particularly China, to fill the void through consistent engagement and diplomatic initiatives.
In the Pacific, where development assistance has long been intertwined with geopolitical influence, Trump’s disengagement is proving costly. If he continues in this path, China’s well-timed investments and swift disaster responses will not only be filling the practical needs of nations like Tonga, but could potentially reshape their strategic orientations.
The Art of Influence in a Changing World
As the U.S. pulls back and China advances, a subtle yet decisive contest for global influence unfolds. Pacific nations, once reliant on American aid and alliances, may recalibrate away from Donald Trump’s “Art of the Deal” strategies.
China, guided by centuries-old strategic thinking, understands that power often lies not in confrontation, but in persuasion and presence.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” — Sun Tzu, The Art of War
This ancient Chinese wisdom now resonates in the Pacific, where Beijing is steadily winning hearts and partnerships—without firing a single shot.
Supa Mario aka Po’uli Havili is a freelance journalist and a Talanoa ‘o Tonga contributor.
