Kalafi Moala
All election campaigning will cease 24 hours before voting begins on Thursday 18th November. This means that no more banners and other campaign materials are to be displayed; no more broadcast programs by candidates, no more gatherings or meetings for the purpose of campaigning.
This was in an announcement from the Office of the Supervisor of Elections, Pita Vuki.
Monday 15 and Tuesday 16 are the remaining two days for any active campaigning. But it seems however that all campaigning throughout the kingdom is winding down anyway.
The big news of the week has shifted from the threat of Covid 19 and the lockdown, to the Election. This would be the 4th General Election since the 2010 Reform. There have been three successive Prime Ministers and Governments since.
This is the final update on the election; the next would be the announcement of who the winners are.
Here is a final projection of what might happen in a couple of days.
Projection:
TT1: Tight race with Siaosi Pohiva (PTOA) edging out Tevita Puloka (Independent).
TT2: Semisi Sika (PTOA) with Dr. Fasi (Independent) in close pursuit.
TT3: Siaosi Sovaleni (Independent) by a wide margin.
TT4: Very tight race, hard to call between Mateni Tapueluelu (PTOA) and Tatafu Moeaki (Independent).
TT5: Dr. ‘Aisake Eke (Independent) ahead of Maliu Takai (Independent).
TT6: Poasi Tei (Independent) by a wide margin.
TT7: Sangster Saulala (Independent) ahead of Feleti Fa’otusia (Independent) and Piveni Piukala (PTOA).
TT8: Viliami Sisifa (Independent) tight race with Johnny Vaea Taione (Independent) and Semisi Fakahau (PTOA).
TT9: Seventeen Toumo’ua (Independent) edging out Dr. Tevita Tukunga (Independent).
TT10: Pohiva Tu’i’onetoa (PAK) ahead of the two PTOA candidates, Kapeli Lanumata (PTOA Komiti) and Vika Kaufusi (PTOA Core Team).
EUA11: Tevita Lavemaau (Independent) ahead of Taniela Fusimalohi (Independent, but supported by PTOA as well).
HP12: Saimone Vuki (Independent) ahead of Vili Hingano Manuopngai (Independent).
HP13: Veivosa Taka (PTOA).
VV14: Dr. Saia Piukala (PTOA) by wide margin.
VV15: Samiu Vaipulu (Independent) in tight race with Tomifa Paea (PTOA)
VV16: Dr. Viliami Latu (Independent) in tight race with Mapa Taumalolo (Independent).
NIUA17: Fe’ao Vakata (Independent) in tight race with Vatau Hui (Independent)
Here are some late changes that may impact results in two or three constituencies:
Firstly, in a survey conducted at TT8 by locals, it was revealed that Johnny Vaea Taione (Independent) was the candidate with strongest campaign. He had focused his campaign among the villages outside of Vaini, even though he is from Vaini himself.
Voters from villages like Longoteme have apparently shifted their support from Semisi Fakahau (PTOA Core Team) to Taione.
The only non-Vaini candidate is Semisi Fakahau from Folaha. However, people in the constituency complain about lack of connection with him, as he lives outside the constituency in Tu’atakilangi in Kolomotu’a.
One of the TT8 candidates, John Alan Ramsay (PTOA) has also withdrawn urging his supporters to vote for Semisi Fakahau.
This may beef up Fakahau’s PTOA support, even though the survey shows overwhelming support for Taione from outside Vaini, and he does have support in Vaini as well.
Secondly, the other major change that may beef up the chances of the front-runner is TT7.
The Core Team faction of PTOA has given their support to Sangster Saulala (an Independent) instead of Piveni Piukala who is the candidate from the PTOA Komiti faction.
Thus the projection that Sangster would win in TT7 with Feleti Fa’otusia a close runner-up.
Certainly TT7 is one of the most interesting constituencies in this election as the seat occupied by the late Vuna Fa’otusia would have a new representative come November 18th.
(NB: the projection given here are mine, and does have an error margin that may vary from one constituency to another. The projection is based not on who I would like to see elected – or should be elected – but on analysis on information gathered.)
