Scientists are predicting that our warming planet is likely to exceed a crucial temperature threshold for the first time in the coming years.
The research indicates a 66% probability of surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming limit between now and 2027. This increase in likelihood is attributed to human-generated emissions and the potential influence of an El Niño weather pattern expected later this year.
While breaching the limit would be concerning, experts suggest that it would likely be a temporary occurrence.
Nevertheless, surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, even if only for a year, is an alarming indication that global warming is accelerating rather than slowing down.
This figure has become significant in climate change negotiations, as countries committed to making efforts to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold consistently for a decade or more would result in more severe consequences, including prolonged heatwaves, intensified storms, and increased wildfires.
However, surpassing the limit within the next few years does not necessarily mean that the goals of the Paris Agreement have been breached. Scientists emphasize that there is still an opportunity to restrict global warming by significantly reducing emissions.
The World Meteorological Organization has been estimating the likelihood of exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold on an annual basis since 2020.
Initially, the probability was projected to be below 20% for the following five years. By the subsequent year, the likelihood had risen to 50%, and now it stands at 66%, indicating that it is more likely than not to occur.
These predictions underscore the need for immediate action to address climate change and mitigate its impacts.