A recent survey of 1002 Tongans who were 18 years and over from all the island groups by the Tupou Tertiary Institute (TTI) revealed important insights into Tongan attitudes towards international influence and security. The survey was funded by the Australian government and modeled on the Lowy Institute Poll.
The survey highlighted a significant concern among Tongans about external influences, particularly from China. About 90% of respondents expressed worry over China’s impact on their political processes.
This concern stems from Tonga’s switch in diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1998, which brought substantial Chinese loans for infrastructure projects but has now left the country grappling with heavy debt repayments.
The United States is also making strategic moves in Tonga, including installing a new embassy in 2023 but yet to operate, and pledging increased aid. Similarly, New Zealand and Australia are strengthening their roles as primary development and security partners in the region.
Tongans surveyed ranked China as Tonga’s second best friend behind New Zealand.
‘Understanding Tongan Attitudes to the World’ Tupou Tertiary Institute 2023 Survey
Despite these efforts, a majority of Tongans remain wary of foreign military presence, with a preference for traditional allies like New Zealand and Australia over China.
Security concerns extend beyond geopolitical maneuvering. The survey showed that six out of ten Tongans feel unsafe, citing health issues like COVID-19 and non-communicable diseases as major threats.
Surprisingly, international terrorism also ranked high on their list of concerns, despite the lack of direct threats to the country.
Climate change and the potential for a US-China military conflict are viewed as equal threats by three-quarters of the respondents, underscoring a regional consensus on these pressing issues.
In terms of foreign aid, Tongans see significant value in budgetary support, prioritizing economic development, education, and health. This reflects a broad desire for cooperation with traditional partners and Western countries to navigate the complex web of global influences.
As Tonga continues to walk a tightrope between global powers, the findings suggest that fostering development cooperation, particularly in health, could further enhance the already warm relations with allies like Australia and New Zealand.
According to Dr. ‘Ungatea Kata from TTI who lead the Tongan survey team, this is the first survey of this kind and is expected to be done every two years.