Millions watched the Oval Office meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. Throughout the discussion, Trump repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine had no “cards” to play in the negotiations.
That statement may have been lost on many, but it carries weight when viewed through the lens of history. Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have been entangled in high-stakes diplomacy for decades. Here’s a brief recap:
1991: The Soviet Union collapsed, granting independence to its former republics, including Ukraine. At the time, Ukraine inherited a significant portion of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, making it the world’s third-largest nuclear power.
1992: The Lisbon Protocol ensured that Ukraine (along with Belarus and Kazakhstan) would join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as non-nuclear states. Ukraine agreed to transfer its nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantling.
1994: The Trilateral Statement, signed by Ukraine, Russia, and the United States, provided security assurances in exchange for Ukraine’s denuclearization. In return for surrendering its nuclear weapons, Ukraine was promised that its sovereignty and territorial integrity would be respected.
Fast forward to today, and we see Trump—touting his deal-making prowess—attempting to broker a peace deal while insisting that Ukraine has no “cards” to bargain with. The truth is, Ukraine once did. It held nuclear weapons, a formidable bargaining chip, but gave them up in the 1990s in exchange for guarantees from Russia and the United States—guarantees that, as history has shown, were bullsh*t.
Those security assurances failed to prevent the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. They failed to stop the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine three years ago. The Minsk Agreements, negotiated in 2014 and 2015, were supposed to bring about a ceasefire but ultimately collapsed as Russia continued its aggression.
Now, amid Trump’s negotiations, Russian forces have not stood down. Given Russia’s track record, it’s understandable why Ukraine would seek something more than just empty promises. Perhaps a member of NATO, or the accession of Ukraine to the European Union, or anything that could guarantee that Russia would stop attacking them. Instead, Trump is pushing a different deal—one in which Ukraine must provide the U.S. with minerals and rare earth elements in exchange for American intervention to secure a ceasefire and a settlement with Russia. Ironically, ensuring Ukraine’s security is something the U.S. had already pledged to do in the 1990s.
But that wasn’t enough for Trump. He demanded more. He wanted Zelensky to praise Putin—the very man whose forces have killed Ukrainians, abducted thousands of their children, forced them into Russian citizenship, and placed obstacles in the way of their reunification with their families. To do that would be for Zelensky to spit on the faces of his countryman, the graves of his people that have lost their lives in defending their country, and to the children that have been abducted by Putin.
All this humiliation, all these concessions—because, as Trump says, Ukraine does not have the “cards” to play. One could imagine the smirk smile on Putin’s face as he was watching this which begs the question:
What is Russia giving up in this negotiation? It has been reported that the Kremlin considers the annexed territories as “non-negotiable”. Trump himself has made clear that Ukraine won’t be a member of NATO.
Ukraine is to not only give up minerals, but to surrender their dignity by bowing down to Putin. It used to matter who was right and who was wrong. Ukraine’s fight for survival was once recognized as just. But today, we live in a world where Trump have declared that justice is irrelevant if you have nothing to bargain with. A world where dictators like Putin can invade sovereign nations simply because these dictators hold the “cards”—and those without them are left to fend for themselves.
