The world stands at a crossroads, grappling with multiple intersecting threats that could define 2025 and beyond. Experts in global risk have offered their perspectives on what they see as the most pressing challenges ahead.
“A Perfect Storm of Risks”
Oliver Jones, EY Global Strategy Leader, highlighted the compounding nature of global threats. “There’s a long list: a global tariff war, economic competition, elections in France and Germany empowering populist parties, unsynchronized AI regulations, US-China tensions, and worsening conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.”
He warned that these interconnected threats create a “perfect storm,” where the odds of benign outcomes are low. Jones urged governments and businesses to adopt a holistic approach to navigate this turbulent period.
“Geopolitical Risk Denialism”
Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, pointed to a dangerous mindset she calls “Geopolitical Risk Denialism.” She explained that many people in developed nations underestimate global risks due to their lack of direct experience with conflict.
“The 21st-century threats will not be contained by geography alone,” she stated, emphasizing the need for preparedness in an era of heightened geopolitical tensions.
CRINK Alliance and Systemic Risks
Christian Mölling from Bertelsmann Stiftung emphasized the evolving cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, known as the CRINK alliance. He cautioned that the West’s failure to counter these powers effectively has amplified systemic risks.
“The synergy of these threats demands comprehensive, coordinated solutions,” Mölling stressed, warning against addressing issues in isolation.
Fragmentation and the Global Rest
Marco Vicenzino, a global strategy advisor, painted a picture of increasing global fragmentation. He pointed out that the Global Rest—over 140 nations often referred to as the Global South—complicates the geopolitical equation.
“These nations, particularly larger players like India and Indonesia, will leverage their position, forcing global powers into strategic competition,” Vicenzino explained.
A Call for Preparedness
The consensus among experts is clear: 2025 will require global leaders to recognize the interconnected nature of threats and adopt forward-thinking, coordinated strategies. The stakes are high, and the margin for error is narrowing.
As Fordham put it, “Chance favors the prepared mind.” The world must heed the warning signs and act decisively to mitigate cascading risks in an increasingly volatile global landscape.
Source: Miami Herald